Consensus PnL -$279K · win rate 78% (253–73, n=326) · was PM monthly #238 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-278.9K
Record
253W / 73L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 326 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#495
Source
PM monthly #238
Trades
747
Markets
361
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $176K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $36K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Yes $19K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (69% of 13)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $10K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $3.2K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (65% of 26)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $3.0K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes $2.5K · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $1.2K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
Specialties
277 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 85¢- Finance
+11 pts
side won 100% of 33 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +11%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 95% of 74 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +8%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 82% of 73 · avg entry 75¢
ROI −11%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 88% of 83 at an average 89¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 63% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 56% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 76% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 94% of 239)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.