Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (74%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 74%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

5.5¢ → 0.4¢

-92% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 19 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,630

Combined PnL+$172.64

Yes14 traders

Total Value$234.68

Total Shares52,150

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 26%Yes — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

97 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Slowroasted	Noavg 93.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$93.53	88% 1990-279 (2269)
4751346	Noavg 85.2¢	$542.71	$597.96	+$55.25	72% 1257-483 (1740)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 97.3¢	$400.09	$400.83	+$8.39	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$230.14	$86.1	-$144.04	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
LI lissartter<$100	No	$73.25	$73.25	+$13.51	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$1.1K	$35.73	$-1.0K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$283.97	$28.87	-$255.1	64% 1197-678 (1875)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941CTR	Yesavg 16¢	$688.53	$19.36	-$669.17	76% 145-47 (192)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$16.01	$16.01	-$46.39	7% 14-187 (201)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$7.07	$15.92	+$8.84	38% 567-944 (1511)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$13.77	$15.73	+$1.96	39% 965-1508 (2473)
BigMackyGCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.12	$9.54	+$7.43	20% 108-423 (531)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$7.1	$7.1	-$20.58	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
CR Crock95CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$15.59	$6.75	-$8.84	57% 255-194 (449)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.93	$6.16	+$0.24	66% 955-482 (1437)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.25	$2.53	+$0.28	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0	$0.45	+$0.45	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Yes	$0.11	$0.11	-$0.32	53% 3726-3240 (6966)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.18	$0.05	-$0.13	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

Slowroasted

Invested

$1,438.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$93.53

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

4751346

Invested

$542.71

Value

$597.96

PnL

+$55.25

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$400.09

Value

$400.83

PnL

+$8.39

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$230.14

Value

$86.1

PnL

-$144.04

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$73.25

Value

$73.25

PnL

+$13.51

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,053.83

Value

$35.73

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

LinaBellCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.97

Value

$28.87

PnL

-$255.1

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941CTR

Yes

Invested

$688.53

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$669.17

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.01

Value

$16.01

PnL

-$46.39

Record

14-187 (201)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.07

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$8.84

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$1.96

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

BigMackyGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$7.43

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$20.58

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Crock95CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.59

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$8.84

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.28

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.13

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 19 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

97 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.