Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 61% (312–201, n=513) · hand-picked wallet · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.7K
Record
312W / 201L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 513 settled
Batting Avg
65.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1120
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
8,773
Markets
791
Volume
$687.9K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 8 on the consensus side (63%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $4.4K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $2.8K · now 56¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $1.8K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $652 · now 83¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $596 · now 73¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (76% of 29)
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Yes $181 · now 16¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes $50 · now 13¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $1 · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
Specialties
590 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 47¢- Mentions
+10 pts
side won 64% of 182 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 52% of 133 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+12 pts
side won 69% of 35 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 20% of 10 at an average 31¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 14% of 214)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 58% of 95)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 71% of 108)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 94% of 173)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.