Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?

15 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 99¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 99.3¢

+83% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 37 top traders (41%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares20,197

Combined PnL+$8.1K

No22 traders

Total Value$476.39

Total Shares8,996

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Late

790h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

39% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (34 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 34

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 30¢	$150	$3.1K	+$1.1K	53% 22161-19289 (41450)
probability	Yesavg 99.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$3.27	41% 1441-2084 (3525)
TeemuPukki	Yesavg 97.2¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$4.03	63% 682-397 (1079)
BigRabbit	Yesavg 18.2¢	$470.3	$2.5K	+$2.1K	40% 708-1074 (1782)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 32¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$3.0K	55% 181-147 (328)
SI SitsToPee	Yes	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$189.37	59% 382-268 (650)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 69¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$2.17	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
Relaccsed	Yesavg 67.7¢	$591.91	$847.96	+$256.05	56% 1238-973 (2211)
Hyperlong	Yesavg 28.8¢	$216.05	$727.5	+$523.88	44% 245-317 (562)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Yesavg 22¢	$107.3	$473.1	+$370.19	62% 45-28 (73)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 28.8¢	$147.68	$447.56	+$311.01	51% 2210-2124 (4334)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 30.3¢	$572.92	$430.14	+$213.43	50% 1748-1776 (3524)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 66¢	$1.2K	$252.83	-$222.4	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 60.2¢	$193.62	$235.73	+$42.11	48% 6965-7593 (14558)
ME Melody626CTR	Noavg 71.9¢	$4.0K	$165.79	$-3.9K	58% 717-523 (1240)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 81¢	$696.54	$145.68	-$44.22	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
PU purplegatto<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$5.66	$8.73	+$3.21	50% 6107-6209 (12316)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 23¢	$111.42	$7.64	+$23.69	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR	Noavg 57¢	$120.21	$6.33	-$113.88	29% 2333-5711 (8044)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$80.45	$5.45	-$75	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$34.15	$5.12	-$12	55% 406-335 (741)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 18.4¢	$47.49	$5.1	-$10.76	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$64.33	$4.08	-$60.25	17% 1105-5456 (6561)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$4.34	$3.93	-$0.41	53% 1631-1463 (3094)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 55.4¢	$70.61	$3.83	-$66.78	47% 2081-2362 (4443)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

probability

Yes

Invested

$2,858.15

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$3.27

Record

41%

1441-2084 (3525)

TeemuPukki

Yes

Invested

$2,591.02

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$4.03

Record

63%

682-397 (1079)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$470.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

40%

708-1074 (1782)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$1,497.11

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

55%

181-147 (328)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$2,065.9

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$189.37

Record

59%

382-268 (650)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$1,922.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$2.17

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$591.91

Value

$847.96

PnL

+$256.05

Record

56%

1238-973 (2211)

Hyperlong

Yes

Invested

$216.05

Value

$727.5

PnL

+$523.88

Record

44%

245-317 (562)

Loyalty-Crash

Yes

Invested

$107.3

Value

$473.1

PnL

+$370.19

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$147.68

Value

$447.56

PnL

+$311.01

Record

51%

2210-2124 (4334)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$572.92

Value

$430.14

PnL

+$213.43

Record

50%

1748-1776 (3524)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$1,195.14

Value

$252.83

PnL

-$222.4

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$193.62

Value

$235.73

PnL

+$42.11

Record

48%

6965-7593 (14558)

Melody626CTR

Invested

$3,973.09

Value

$165.79

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

58%

717-523 (1240)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$696.54

Value

$145.68

PnL

-$44.22

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

purplegatto<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$3.21

Record

50%

6107-6209 (12316)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$111.42

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$23.69

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

SpringlyFawlCTR

Invested

$120.21

Value

$6.33

PnL

-$113.88

Record

29%

2333-5711 (8044)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$80.45

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$75

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Invested

$34.15

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$12

Record

55%

406-335 (741)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$47.49

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$10.76

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$64.33

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$60.25

Record

17%

1105-5456 (6561)

cowcatCTR<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

1631-1463 (3094)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$70.61

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$66.78

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 37 top traders (41%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Late

790h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

39% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (34 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 34

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.