Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 93¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 4

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$45.3K

Combined PnL

$610.23

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 92.5¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$43.9K

Total Shares47,586

Combined PnL+$938.43

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares19,087

Combined PnL-$328.19

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR Trump2028	Yesavg 92¢	$17.5K	$17.6K	+$95.1	82% 402-89 (491)
scottilicious	Yesavg 92¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$29.72	82% 945-201 (1146)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 92.8¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$14.83	69% 156-69 (225)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 88.6¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$244.21	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 91¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$87.8	69% 804-359 (1163)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 81.4¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$362.03	61% 203-132 (335)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 89.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$30.01	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 93¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.18	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 7.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$209.25	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 90¢	$976.14	$1.0K	+$27.04	38% 20-32 (52)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 85¢	$552.5	$598	+$55.25	94% 442-28 (470)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 11¢	$245.05	$155.94	-$89.11	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
EA Eatpraylove	Yesavg 73¢	$99.04	$124.82	+$27.81	57% 766-585 (1351)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 7.2¢	$41.25	$107.2	-$19.21	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 90.4¢	$56.38	$56.83	+$0.46	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 9.2¢	$58.74	$43.19	-$10.64	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 15.7¢	$0.15	$0.16	+$0.01	57% 3068-2356 (5424)

Trump2028

Yes

Invested

$17,497.61

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$95.1

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$5,468.5

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$29.72

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$5,302.88

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$14.83

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$4,329.78

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$244.21

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$3,196.07

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$87.8

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$2,647.39

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$362.03

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,810.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$1,149.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.18

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$1,167.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$209.25

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$976.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$27.04

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$552.5

Value

$598

PnL

+$55.25

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$245.05

Value

$155.94

PnL

-$89.11

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Eatpraylove

Yes

Invested

$99.04

Value

$124.82

PnL

+$27.81

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$41.25

Value

$107.2

PnL

-$19.21

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.38

Value

$56.83

PnL

+$0.46

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$58.74

Value

$43.19

PnL

-$10.64

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.