Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 18 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

18 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

1.5¢ → 2.1¢

+40% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 20 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares331,078

Combined PnL+$2.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$687.63

Total Shares702

Combined PnL+$20.64

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

214 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.9K	$3.6K	+$781.35	54% 325-279 (604)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$708.5	$1.2K	+$449.81	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$502.95	$931.46	+$428.52	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
RD rdba	Noavg 95¢	$665	$685.65	+$20.65	60% 131-88 (219)
mombilCTR	Yes	$456.87	$456.87	+$195.8	55% 1191-966 (2157)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$141.24	$141.24	+$88.7	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$97.65	$137.65	+$42.94	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$96.88	$99.57	+$2.69	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.89	$83.16	+$52.23	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.67	$69.95	+$68.29	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$28.42	$63	+$18	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$76.44	$61.31	+$18.69	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$11.09	$46.2	+$35.12	68% 2074-957 (3031)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$31.5	+$24.84	58% 1153-825 (1978)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$10.38	$16.15	+$5.77	57% 1113-837 (1950)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.51	$6.18	+$4.24	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$5.71	$4.02	+$2.69	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$1.2K	$2.1	+$2.88	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$1.99	$1.98	-$0.01	69% 156-69 (225)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.1	+$0.1	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,862.69

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$781.35

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$708.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$449.81

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$502.95

Value

$931.46

PnL

+$428.52

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

rdba

Invested

$665

Value

$685.65

PnL

+$20.65

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$456.87

Value

$456.87

PnL

+$195.8

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$141.24

Value

$141.24

PnL

+$88.7

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$97.65

Value

$137.65

PnL

+$42.94

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.88

Value

$99.57

PnL

+$2.69

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.89

Value

$83.16

PnL

+$52.23

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$69.95

PnL

+$68.29

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.42

Value

$63

PnL

+$18

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.44

Value

$61.31

PnL

+$18.69

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$35.12

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$24.84

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.38

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$5.77

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$4.24

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$2.69

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,238.39

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$2.88

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,148.65

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 20 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

214 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.2%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3005.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

3105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.