Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 55¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 8

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$890.6

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 55¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares18,383

Combined PnL+$637.91

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares12,353

Combined PnL+$252.69

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

180h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 50¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$566.49	44% 540-681 (1221)
SU SunlineTicker	Noavg 55.7¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$1.28	60% 4637-3040 (7677)
WH whigCTR	Yesavg 42.7¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$140.11	59% 422-290 (712)
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 41.3¢	$67.57	$2.1K	+$117.28	45% 748-896 (1644)
clazzy1	Noavg 56.6¢	$579.99	$563.24	-$6.51	65% 503-275 (778)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$430	$430	+$0	55% 1042-867 (1909)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 53.2¢	$890.52	$284.26	-$15.81	34% 19439-36995 (56434)
Haradwaith	Noavg 48.7¢	$239.75	$258.96	+$19.2	40% 6592-9939 (16531)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 41¢	$148.32	$217.54	+$69.22	47% 1359-1504 (2863)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 55.6¢	$125.74	$124.4	-$1.34	53% 23842-20976 (44818)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$91.35	$90.3	-$1.05	59% 1021-711 (1732)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.8¢	$48.19	$47.3	+$1.29	47% 10796-12360 (23156)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.7¢	$37.55	$36.99	-$0.56	77% 12726-3889 (16615)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 37¢	$11.7	$17.4	+$5.38	56% 18835-15002 (33837)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.3¢	$23.92	$6.33	-$4.39	58% 21422-15550 (36972)

anoin123

Invested

$4,055.15

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$566.49

Record

44%

540-681 (1221)

SunlineTicker

Invested

$4,245.14

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.28

Record

60%

4637-3040 (7677)

whigCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,627.63

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$140.11

Record

59%

422-290 (712)

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$67.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$117.28

Record

45%

748-896 (1644)

clazzy1

Invested

$579.99

Value

$563.24

PnL

-$6.51

Record

65%

503-275 (778)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$430

Value

$430

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1042-867 (1909)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$890.52

Value

$284.26

PnL

-$15.81

Record

34%

19439-36995 (56434)

Haradwaith

Invested

$239.75

Value

$258.96

PnL

+$19.2

Record

40%

6592-9939 (16531)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$148.32

Value

$217.54

PnL

+$69.22

Record

47%

1359-1504 (2863)

cigarettes

Invested

$125.74

Value

$124.4

PnL

-$1.34

Record

53%

23842-20976 (44818)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.35

Value

$90.3

PnL

-$1.05

Record

59%

1021-711 (1732)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.19

Value

$47.3

PnL

+$1.29

Record

47%

10796-12360 (23156)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.55

Value

$36.99

PnL

-$0.56

Record

77%

12726-3889 (16615)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$5.38

Record

56%

18835-15002 (33837)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.92

Value

$6.33

PnL

-$4.39

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

180h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.0%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$75.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

175.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.