Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$822.37

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 92.3¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares17,760

Combined PnL+$542.57

No11 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,060

Combined PnL+$279.8

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$102.71	$915.18	+$146.99	46% 741-884 (1625)
balthazar	Noavg 82¢	$541.73	$543.43	+$74.21	52% 30859-28946 (59805)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 88¢	$512.42	$468.64	+$27.73	58% 15789-11494 (27283)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 82.7¢	$451.96	$428.39	+$35.25	54% 12443-10706 (23149)
DO donthackme	Noavg 87.8¢	$403.13	$425.98	+$22.89	68% 13184-6208 (19392)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 95.6¢	$439.22	$382.34	-$11.65	46% 9380-11135 (20515)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 61.1¢	$340.58	$296.96	+$129.38	38% 7282-11723 (19005)
QM QMG-CORECTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$76.36	$264	+$187.64	77% 1490-445 (1935)
PK pkzCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$114.79	$194.08	+$87.02	58% 527-383 (910)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$40.12	$121.8	+$81.68	57% 867-666 (1533)
PL plainfolder	Noavg 91.6¢	$102.54	$103.94	+$1.4	31% 4458-9736 (14194)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	No	$95.65	$95.65	-$1.68	53% 4521-4027 (8548)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$96.37	$80.09	+$2.19	49% 6544-6928 (13472)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$3.33	$33.04	+$12.82	56% 18814-14972 (33786)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.81	$22.67	+$20.87	45% 294-353 (647)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$16.71	$16.71	+$6.47	67% 27463-13818 (41281)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$16.22	$15.22	-$0.99	58% 21212-15411 (36623)
SP SpringlyFawl	Noavg 85.6¢	$130.76	$7.85	+$1.08	27% 2509-6878 (9387)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$9.9	$7.69	-$2.22	77% 12685-3871 (16556)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.43	$1.74	+$1.31	28% 576-1485 (2061)

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.71

Value

$915.18

PnL

+$146.99

Record

46%

741-884 (1625)

balthazar

Invested

$541.73

Value

$543.43

PnL

+$74.21

Record

52%

30859-28946 (59805)

graynotebook19

Invested

$512.42

Value

$468.64

PnL

+$27.73

Record

58%

15789-11494 (27283)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$451.96

Value

$428.39

PnL

+$35.25

Record

54%

12443-10706 (23149)

donthackme

Invested

$403.13

Value

$425.98

PnL

+$22.89

Record

68%

13184-6208 (19392)

smallreceipt

Invested

$439.22

Value

$382.34

PnL

-$11.65

Record

46%

9380-11135 (20515)

godblessme2026

Invested

$340.58

Value

$296.96

PnL

+$129.38

Record

38%

7282-11723 (19005)

QMG-CORECTR

Yes

Invested

$76.36

Value

$264

PnL

+$187.64

Record

77%

1490-445 (1935)

pkzCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.79

Value

$194.08

PnL

+$87.02

Record

58%

527-383 (910)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$40.12

Value

$121.8

PnL

+$81.68

Record

57%

867-666 (1533)

plainfolder

Invested

$102.54

Value

$103.94

PnL

+$1.4

Record

31%

4458-9736 (14194)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$95.65

Value

$95.65

PnL

-$1.68

Record

53%

4521-4027 (8548)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$96.37

Value

$80.09

PnL

+$2.19

Record

49%

6544-6928 (13472)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$33.04

PnL

+$12.82

Record

56%

18814-14972 (33786)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$22.67

PnL

+$20.87

Record

45%

294-353 (647)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.71

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$6.47

Record

67%

27463-13818 (41281)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$15.22

PnL

-$0.99

Record

58%

21212-15411 (36623)

SpringlyFawl

Invested

$130.76

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$1.08

Record

27%

2509-6878 (9387)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.9

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$2.22

Record

77%

12685-3871 (16556)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$1.31

Record

28%

576-1485 (2061)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.6%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.