Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 8 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 34¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

23.6¢ → 33.5¢

+42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares25,593

Combined PnL+$2.6K

No9 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares8,227

Combined PnL-$567.45

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

923h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$4.7K	$6.2K	+$1.5K	—
AN anoin123	Noavg 73¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$286.78	—
Haradwaith	Noavg 71.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$83.16	—
QM QMG-CORECTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$136.36	$1.0K	+$868.64	—
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$1.1K	$936.97	-$118.03	—
Tenebrus7	Noavg 83.5¢	$835	$665	-$170	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 70.4¢	$457.54	$431.89	-$25.65	—
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$38	$156.78	+$118.78	—
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$95.98	$101.29	+$5.31	—
balthazar<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$93.24	$98.2	+$4.96	—
FL flawfence<$100	Noavg 77¢	$81.33	$71.64	-$9.69	—
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$179.33	$63.61	+$162.98	—
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$24.32	$61.63	-$1.79	—
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$7.81	$57.55	+$49.74	—
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$38.98	$40.78	+$1.81	—
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.14	$23.12	+$19.98	—
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 57¢	$17.11	$19.96	+$2.85	—

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,694.44

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

—

anoin123

Invested

$3,220.74

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$286.78

Record

—

Haradwaith

Invested

$1,233.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$83.16

Record

—

QMG-CORECTR

Yes

Invested

$136.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$868.64

Record

—

M2sx92kljs42CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,055

Value

$936.97

PnL

-$118.03

Record

—

Tenebrus7

Invested

$835

Value

$665

PnL

-$170

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$457.54

Value

$431.89

PnL

-$25.65

Record

—

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$156.78

PnL

+$118.78

Record

—

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.98

Value

$101.29

PnL

+$5.31

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$93.24

Value

$98.2

PnL

+$4.96

Record

—

flawfence<$100

Invested

$81.33

Value

$71.64

PnL

-$9.69

Record

—

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$179.33

Value

$63.61

PnL

+$162.98

Record

—

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$24.32

Value

$61.63

PnL

-$1.79

Record

—

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$57.55

PnL

+$49.74

Record

—

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$38.98

Value

$40.78

PnL

+$1.81

Record

—

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$23.12

PnL

+$19.98

Record

—

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$17.11

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$2.85

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

923h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.