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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpMichael-The-Taxiarch
Record (consensus markets)58% (4521–3296, n=7817)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6519–6017, n=12536)57% (55–41, n=96)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.5M$31K
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #24PM monthly #543
Sides with the consensus64% (9 of 14 open)83% (24 of 29 open)70% (230 of 328 open)58% (7 of 12 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22Geopolitics −4 pts, n=14
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%48% of 98 at avg 45¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 465)45% (won 7% of 44)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 255)12% (won 50% of 12)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)16% (won 62% of 260)10% (won 70% of 10)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)39% (won 94% of 637)33% (won 97% of 32)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpMichael-The-Taxiarch
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $79K——
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
opposite sides · consensus Luca Van Assche
Luca Van Assche $20K—Lorenzo Musetti $18K—
Will NEC win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $475—No $2.4K—
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $25K—Under $1.1K—
Trabzonspor vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $1.9K—Over $3.9K—
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Rider Broncs
same side · consensus Rider Broncs
Rider Broncs $2.9K—Rider Broncs $171—