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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319BreakTheBankS-Worksweflyhigh
Record (consensus markets)56% (3671–2839, n=6510)41% (616–869, n=1485)75% (2552–856, n=3408)52% (414–381, n=795)
Consensus PnL$1.2M$8.4M$3.6M$2.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #30PM monthly #1PM monthly #66Hand-picked
Sides with the consensus92% (12 of 13 open)88% (30 of 34 open)0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
  • Soccer +19 pts n=32, ROI +31%
  • NHL +3 pts n=601, ROI +3%
  • NBA +11 pts n=45, ROI +13%
Weakest topicEntertainment −2 pts, n=32—Crypto −1 pts, n=46Entertainment −21 pts, n=12
Settled positions, side won56% of 5769 at avg 56¢, ROI +2%97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%55% of 745 at avg 51¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢9% (won 19% of 519)10% (won 82% of 60)6% (won 14% of 145)3% (won 27% of 26)
Entries 30–50¢34% (won 43% of 1945)36% (won 98% of 212)16% (won 48% of 367)41% (won 50% of 302)
Entries 50–70¢36% (won 53% of 2104)35% (won 100% of 205)23% (won 60% of 509)51% (won 58% of 380)
Entries 70¢ and up21% (won 95% of 1201)20% (won 100% of 116)55% (won 96% of 1235)5% (won 89% of 37)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319BreakTheBankS-Worksweflyhigh
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $17KNo $37K——