Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319BreakTheBankprimm
Record (consensus markets)no settled market96% (291–13, n=304)75% (9–3, n=12)
Consensus PnL$4.6K$8.4M$83K
Tracked asPM monthly #30PM monthly #1PM monthly #41
Sides with the consensus92% (12 of 13 open)82% (32 of 39 open)0% (0 of 6 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=83, ROI +49%
  • NBA +47 pts n=58, ROI +46%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=160, ROI +37%
not computed yet
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won—95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39%—
Entries under 30¢—11% (won 69% of 36)—
Entries 30–50¢—35% (won 97% of 116)—
Entries 50–70¢—37% (won 99% of 124)—
Entries 70¢ and up—17% (won 100% of 56)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319BreakTheBankprimm
Bills vs. Vikings
opposite sides · consensus Bills
—Bills $234KVikings $7.9K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
—Bills $142KVikings $8.6K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $17KNo $41K—
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
—Bills $23KVikings $9.7K
Spread: Bills (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
—Bills $17KVikings $7.9K
Spread: Bills (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
—Bills $13KVikings $7.9K