Spread: Bills (-2.5)

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (53%) · Bills at 59¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 10

Bills59¢Vikings41¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.1K

Combined PnL

-$82.21

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

10 of 19 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills59%

Vikings42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills10 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares34,179

Combined PnL+$128.15

Vikings9 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares36,567

Combined PnL-$210.36

Bills — 53%Vikings — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBills 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBills 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Billsavg 57.1¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$74.82	43% 26-35 (61)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 57.1¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$102.16
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 42¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$27.34
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Billsavg 59¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$50.09	3% 5-177 (182)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Billsavg 58¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$40.54	30% 104-243 (347)
BR BreakTheBank	Billsavg 58¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$40.26	40% 333-506 (839)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Vikingsavg 41.1¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$41.31	30% 29-67 (96)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Vikingsavg 43¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$122.16	3% 4-155 (159)
PR primmCTR	Vikingsavg 42¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$35.71	16% 18-93 (111)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 42.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$66.99	49% 377-392 (769)
BA bands1	Billsavg 57¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$42.12	—
PU purplegatto	Billsavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.06	2% 3-161 (164)
OM omnibus-076daa	Billsavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$29.04	30% 60-139 (199)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Vikingsavg 42¢	$2.5K	$1.0K	-$12.36	4% 5-123 (128)
HI hi774cCTR	Vikingsavg 42¢	$1,000	$988.09	-$11.9	4% 9-248 (257)
NM NM-P	Billsavg 57.2¢	$717.51	$733.42	+$15.91	6% 11-164 (175)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Vikingsavg 43.7¢	$526.45	$523.38	-$3.06	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 43.7¢	$320.73	$304.72	-$8.67
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 56¢	$209.31	$218.66	+$5.61
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Vikingsavg 42¢	$168	$166	-$2	5% 21-412 (433)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 43.3¢	$42	$18.45	-$0.48	48% 171-185 (356)
RL RLWG<$100	Billsavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.85	+$0.05	22% 26-94 (120)
HE Herdonia<$100	Billsavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.85	+$0.15	1% 1-190 (191)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 42¢	$5.89	$5.82	-$0.07	75% 18-6 (24)
VeryLucky888<$100	Billsavg 54¢	$3.35	$3.46	+$0.1	52% 59-54 (113)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$6,361.34

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$74.82

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

Both legs:

Bills$4,178.0657.1¢+$102.16

Vikings$2,160.4442¢-$27.34

monkeymashingkeyboard

Bills

Invested

$5,910.34

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$50.09

Record

5-177 (182)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bills

Invested

$4,701.28

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$40.54

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

BreakTheBank

Bills

Invested

$4,670.27

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$40.26

Record

40%

333-506 (839)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Vikings

Invested

$4,219.96

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$41.31

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Vikings

Invested

$3,501.79

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$122.16

Record

4-155 (159)

primmCTR

Vikings

Invested

$2,999.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$35.71

Record

16%

18-93 (111)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$2,439.59

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$66.99

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

bands1

Bills

Invested

$1,600.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$42.12

Record

—

purplegatto

Bills

Invested

$1,166.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.06

Record

3-161 (164)

omnibus-076daa

Bills

Invested

$1,103.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.04

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

SunlineTickerCTR

Vikings

Invested

$2,472

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$12.36

Record

5-123 (128)

hi774cCTR

Vikings

Invested

$1,000

Value

$988.09

PnL

-$11.9

Record

9-248 (257)

NM-P

Bills

Invested

$717.51

Value

$733.42

PnL

+$15.91

Record

11-164 (175)

GC-PARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$526.45

Value

$523.38

PnL

-$3.06

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Vikings$320.7343.7¢-$8.67

Bills$209.3156¢+$5.61

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Vikings

Invested

$168

Value

$166

PnL

-$2

Record

21-412 (433)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$42

Value

$18.45

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

RLWG<$100

Bills

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

22%

26-94 (120)

Herdonia<$100

Bills

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

1-190 (191)

qidao001CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$5.89

Value

$5.82

PnL

-$0.07

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bills

10 of 19 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBills 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBills 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.