Spread: Bills (-3.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (54%) · Vikings at 54¢ · $332K held · ends Nov 10

Bills47¢Vikings53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$331.9K

Combined PnL

$495.57

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills47%

Vikings54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings7 traders

Total Value$164.2K

Total Shares306,937

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Bills6 traders

Total Value$164.0K

Total Shares352,622

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Vikings — 54%Bills — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Vikingsavg 54¢	$300.0K	$160.5K	$-1.5K	54% 395-342 (737)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Billsavg 46¢	$134.2K	$135.7K	+$1.5K	41% 657-944 (1601)
nigiri99CTR	Billsavg 46¢	$11.9K	$12.0K	+$129.34	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Billsavg 46¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$100	50% 1027-1008 (2035)
TA takeormakeCTR	Billsavg 45¢	$9.9K	$4.6K	+$148.85	52% 5582-5216 (10798)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Billsavg 46¢	$5.0K	$2.3K	+$25	48% 216-238 (454)
HO HomeRunHazard	Vikingsavg 52.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$70.42	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardARB<$100	Billsavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$34.71	54% 689-598 (1287)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 50¢	$893	$830.49	-$62.51
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 50¢	$397.12	$425	+$27.8
NM NM-PARB<$100	Vikingsavg 52.8¢	$636.24	$1.1K	-$7.64	58% 22615-16691 (39306)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 52.8¢	$650.39	$658.55	+$7.36
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 50¢	$500	$465	-$15
PL pltrkr111	Vikingsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$70	55% 830-687 (1517)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Billsavg 46¢	$769.29	$782.45	+$13.16	50% 4170-4244 (8414)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 46¢	$481.82	$486.95	-$5.35
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 51.1¢	$282.47	$295.5	+$18.51
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 53¢	$1.1K	$741.77	-$13.85	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Vikingsavg 54¢	$770.3	$505.35	+$5.05	57% 22524-16688 (39212)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 54¢	$275.4	$272.85	+$2.55
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 46¢	$230	$232.5	+$2.5
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Vikingsavg 54¢	$48.18	$48.63	+$0.45	46% 948-1130 (2078)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 52.9¢	$21.17	$21.24	+$0.06	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
RL RLWG<$100	Vikingsavg 54¢	$7.5	$5	-$0.2	49% 8562-8739 (17301)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Billsavg 47.7¢	$2.83	$2.75	-$0.07	73% 13539-5008 (18547)

gmpm2

Vikings

Invested

$299,999.95

Value

$160.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

395-342 (737)

BreakTheBankCTR

Bills

Invested

$134,244.47

Value

$135.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

41%

657-944 (1601)

nigiri99CTR

Bills

Invested

$11,894.17

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$129.34

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Bills

Invested

$9,200

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

50%

1027-1008 (2035)

takeormakeCTR

Bills

Invested

$9,923.11

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$148.85

Record

52%

5582-5216 (10798)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Bills

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$25

Record

48%

216-238 (454)

HomeRunHazard

Vikings

Invested

$1,779.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$70.42

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

monkeymashingkeyboardARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$1,290.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$34.71

Record

54%

689-598 (1287)

Both legs:

Bills$89350¢-$62.51

Vikings$397.1250¢+$27.8

NM-PARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$636.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.64

Record

58%

22615-16691 (39306)

Both legs:

Vikings$650.3952.8¢+$7.36

Bills$50050¢-$15

pltrkr111

Vikings

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70

Record

55%

830-687 (1517)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$769.29

Value

$782.45

PnL

+$13.16

Record

50%

4170-4244 (8414)

Both legs:

Bills$481.8246¢-$5.35

Vikings$282.4751.1¢+$18.51

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$1,096.62

Value

$741.77

PnL

-$13.85

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

GC-PARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$770.3

Value

$505.35

PnL

+$5.05

Record

57%

22524-16688 (39212)

Both legs:

Vikings$275.454¢+$2.55

Bills$23046¢+$2.5

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Vikings

Invested

$48.18

Value

$48.63

PnL

+$0.45

Record

46%

948-1130 (2078)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$21.17

Value

$21.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

RLWG<$100

Vikings

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

8562-8739 (17301)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.07

Record

73%

13539-5008 (18547)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.