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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
57284910RN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)95% (19–1, n=20)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$2.9K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #449PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus95% (19 of 20 open)53% (64 of 120 open)72% (73 of 102 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won100% of 18 at avg 96¢, ROI +2%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢0%10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢0%22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢0%36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up100% (won 100% of 18)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market57284910RN1BreakTheBank
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1.4K—Yes $77K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $12KCardinals $59K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $9.0K—Yes $14K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $18KBills $51K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $228Magic $51K
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $161Magic $13K