← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | beachboy4 | CORGII | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 47% (6811–7553, n=14364) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 62% (393–246, n=639) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) |
| Consensus PnL | $323K | $5.8M | $4.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #167 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 79% (128 of 162 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=1795 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 50% of 15665 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 33% (won 5% of 5170) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 32% of 1674) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 52% of 1769) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 45% (won 86% of 7052) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | beachboy4 | CORGII | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.4K | Yes $68 | — | — |