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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 82% (314–69, n=383) | 46% (560–667, n=1227) | 50% (1078–1087, n=2165) |
| Consensus PnL | -$551K | $9.4M | $3.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #304 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #48 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 62% (18 of 29 open) | 72% (18 of 25 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=15 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 726 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 3% of 29) | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 5% (won 94% of 51) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 69% of 42) | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 41% (won 99% of 405) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 79% of 103) | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 49% (won 99% of 485) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 98% of 552) | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 5% (won 100% of 46) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $6.8K | No $258K | — |