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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BikesAreTheBikes | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 26% (609–1728, n=2337) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $62K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #541 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 49% (61 of 124 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) | 62% (16 of 26 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Weather −5 pts, n=16 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 48% of 1353 at avg 35¢, ROI +9% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 18% of 769) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 66% of 157) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 85% of 151) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 97% of 276) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BikesAreTheBikes | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $7 | No $118K | — | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $161K | Commanders $433 | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $32K | Commanders $125 | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $51 | Yes $14K | — | — |