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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BikesAreTheBikes | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 26% (608–1728, n=2336) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $60K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #541 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 48% (61 of 126 open) | 67% (16 of 24 open) | no open consensus position | 74% (72 of 97 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Weather −5 pts, n=16 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 48% of 1353 at avg 35¢, ROI +9% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 18% of 769) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 66% of 157) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 85% of 151) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 97% of 276) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BikesAreTheBikes | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $7 | — | — | No $214K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $204 | — | — | Yes $4.7K |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $1.1K | — | — | No $747 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House same side · consensus No | Yes $101 | — | — | Yes $1.1K |