Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpS-Workstrgparking
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)52% (7739–7030, n=14769)75% (2542–853, n=3395)55% (835–691, n=1526)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$4.1M$3.8M$550K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #15PM monthly #54PM monthly #685
Sides with the consensus83% (29 of 35 open)73% (107 of 147 open)75% (6 of 8 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Other Sports −28 pts, n=15Crypto −1 pts, n=46—
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%52% of 1460 at avg 51¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)29% (won 11% of 403)6% (won 14% of 145)22% (won 16% of 314)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)16% (won 38% of 228)16% (won 48% of 367)27% (won 35% of 401)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)15% (won 62% of 214)23% (won 60% of 509)28% (won 62% of 410)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)40% (won 94% of 553)55% (won 96% of 1235)23% (won 94% of 335)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpS-Workstrgparking
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner
opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $153KT1 $5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
same side · consensus T1
——T1 $863KT1 $100K
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
same side · consensus Bilibili Gaming
—Bilibili Gaming $273Bilibili Gaming $184K—