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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | primm | whig | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 45% (10–12, n=22) | 50% (1106–1119, n=2225) | 62% (414–251, n=665) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.9M | $5.3M | $3.6M | $356K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #46 | PM monthly #949 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (26 of 34 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 71% (40 of 56 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | Finance −7 pts, n=26 |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 47% of 622 at avg 40¢, ROI +6% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 45% (won 13% of 280) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 41% (won 99% of 405) | 18% (won 43% of 109) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 49% (won 99% of 485) | 13% (won 81% of 79) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 5% (won 100% of 46) | 25% (won 95% of 154) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | primm | whig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $90K | — | — | Yes $9.5K |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $78K | — | — | Yes $508 |