Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BunCaCham00gringo00BreakTheBank0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241
Record (consensus markets)97% (2614–70, n=2684)75% (6–2, n=8)45% (537–652, n=1189)56% (101–79, n=180)
Consensus PnL-$132K$3.5M$10.6M$3.5M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #839was PM monthly #19PM monthly #1was PM monthly #373
Sides with the consensus54% (7 of 13 open)no open consensus position85% (53 of 62 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +8 pts n=32, ROI 0%
none with 10+ settled
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • MLB +46 pts n=20, ROI +49%
  • Esports +35 pts n=28, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +30 pts n=52, ROI +38%
Weakest topicEsports −1 pts, n=909———
Settled positions, side won98% of 2648 at avg 97¢, ROI 0%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42%
Entries under 30¢1% (won 17% of 23)0%10% (won 82% of 56)7% (won 75% of 8)
Entries 30–50¢1% (won 72% of 29)0%36% (won 98% of 198)26% (won 93% of 29)
Entries 50–70¢1% (won 63% of 32)100% (won 86% of 7)35% (won 99% of 191)42% (won 96% of 47)
Entries 70¢ and up97% (won 99% of 2564)0%19% (won 100% of 107)24% (won 96% of 27)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBunCaCham00gringo00BreakTheBank0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $918—Yes $64K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $920—Yes $32K—
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.2K—Yes $13K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.1K—Yes $7.2K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $553—Yes $5.0K—
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $274—Yes $3.0K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $11—No $166K—