← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Elias.Thornwell | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 78% (10454–2940, n=13394) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (1028–1027, n=2055) |
| Consensus PnL | $84 | $13.4M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #837 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 86% (373 of 435 open) | 71% (5 of 7 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 3325 at avg 89¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 58% of 101) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 96% of 98) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 98% of 167) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 89% (won 100% of 2959) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Elias.Thornwell | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $289 | — | Yes $65 | — |