Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Flaznorpjoseph00677NOO-YesS-Works
Record (consensus markets)52% (7739–7030, n=14769)43% (10–13, n=23)38% (5–8, n=13)75% (2542–853, n=3395)
Consensus PnL$4.1M$3.3M-$14K$3.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #15PM monthly #8was PM monthly #417PM monthly #54
Sides with the consensus73% (99 of 136 open)no open consensus position50% (2 of 4 open)78% (7 of 9 open)
Strongest topics
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
none with 10+ settled
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
Weakest topicOther Sports −28 pts, n=15——Crypto −1 pts, n=46
Settled positions, side won56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%42% of 12 at avg 38¢, ROI +2%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢29% (won 11% of 403)12% (won 0% of 2)50% (won 17% of 6)6% (won 14% of 145)
Entries 30–50¢16% (won 38% of 228)6% (won 0% of 1)17% (won 50% of 2)16% (won 48% of 367)
Entries 50–70¢15% (won 62% of 214)65% (won 73% of 11)25% (won 67% of 3)23% (won 60% of 509)
Entries 70¢ and up40% (won 94% of 553)18% (won 67% of 3)8% (won 100% of 1)55% (won 96% of 1235)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketFlaznorpjoseph00677NOO-YesS-Works
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming
Bilibili Gaming $273—T1 $928Bilibili Gaming $386K
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Under $2.6K——Over $44K
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner
same side · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $48KBilibili Gaming $154K
Pelicans vs. Clippers
same side · consensus Pelicans
Pelicans $3.3K——Pelicans $52K
Jazz vs. Timberwolves
same side · consensus Timberwolves
Timberwolves $10K—Timberwolves $45K—