Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 50¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 9

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.4K

Combined PnL

-$24.81

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares20,665

Combined PnL+$91.14

Under9 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares20,978

Combined PnL-$115.95

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Overavg 50¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$100	51% 1149-1104 (2253)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 50¢	$8.5K	$8.4K	-$84.88	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$3.22	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$49.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$823.64	$770.77	-$52.88
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$46.48	61% 4522-2835 (7357)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$385.51	$386.01	+$0.5	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$207.01	$209.26	+$2.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$353.5	$350	-$3.5	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75
TA takeormakeCTR	Underavg 50¢	$181.5	$179.69	-$1.81	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 48¢	$118.64	$127.29	+$8.65	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RN1	Overavg 50¢	$125	$126.25	+$1.25	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
nigiri99	Overavg 52.8¢	$131.5	$120.74	-$10.76	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
HI hi774c<$100	Overavg 50¢	$66.33	$66.99	+$0.66	46% 5627-6537 (12164)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.07	$66.74	+$0.67	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$49.68	$55.62	+$5.94	47% 150-169 (319)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$19.62	$19.62	-$0.01	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$11.21	$12.55	+$1.34	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$9.5	$9.9	+$0.4	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.35	$2.58	+$0.23	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

BoggsFromShawshank

Over

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

51%

1149-1104 (2253)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$8,488.21

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$84.88

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,819.88

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$3.22

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Both legs:

Under$2,996.2448.7¢+$49.66

Over$823.6454¢-$52.88

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$1,580.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$46.48

Record

61%

4522-2835 (7357)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$385.51

Value

$386.01

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Both legs:

Under$207.0149¢+$2.25

Over$178.551¢-$1.75

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$353.5

Value

$350

PnL

-$3.5

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Both legs:

Invested

$181.5

Value

$179.69

PnL

-$1.81

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$118.64

Value

$127.29

PnL

+$8.65

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RN1

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$131.5

Value

$120.74

PnL

-$10.76

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

hi774c<$100

Over

Invested

$66.33

Value

$66.99

PnL

+$0.66

Record

46%

5627-6537 (12164)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.07

Value

$66.74

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.68

Value

$55.62

PnL

+$5.94

Record

47%

150-169 (319)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$19.62

Value

$19.62

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.21

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$1.34

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.