Jazz vs. Timberwolves

18 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (46%) · Timberwolves at 79¢ · $396K held · ended Nov 9

Jazz22¢Timberwolves78¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 46%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$395.8K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 78.5¢

-9% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

18 of 39 top traders (46%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz22%

Timberwolves79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves18 traders

Total Value$223.1K

Total Shares271,462

Combined PnL$-12.5K

Jazz21 traders

Total Value$55.8K

Total Shares257,029

Combined PnL+$17.1K

Timberwolves — 46%Jazz — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (14 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Timberwolvesavg 85.7¢	$143.2K	$136.3K	$-7.0K	50% 8704-8819 (17523)
NO NOO-Yes	Timberwolvesavg 88¢	$47.5K	$42.4K	$-5.1K	— 5-9 (14)
RN1ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 82.9¢	$40.6K	$41.5K	+$930.92	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 82.9¢	$33.4K	$31.6K	$-1.8K
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 15.7¢	$7.2K	$9.9K	+$2.7K
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 83.8¢	$29.7K	$29.5K	-$183.96	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 83.8¢	$25.1K	$23.5K	$-1.6K
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 16.5¢	$4.6K	$6.0K	+$1.4K
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jazzavg 12.3¢	$13.3K	$19.4K	+$6.0K	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 79.9¢	$15.4K	$17.2K	+$1.7K	48% 521-567 (1088)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 79.9¢	$12.8K	$13.4K	+$583.66
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 11.4¢	$2.6K	$3.8K	+$1.2K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Timberwolvesavg 87¢	$15.7K	$15.8K	+$90.48	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Jazzavg 14.2¢	$10.0K	$15.0K	+$5.1K	49% 115-122 (237)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 74¢	$6.5K	$8.7K	+$2.2K	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 15¢	$3.0K	$5.2K	+$2.1K
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 74¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$23.69
AS asuka7	Timberwolvesavg 85¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	-$50.38	58% 1008-717 (1725)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jazzavg 16.5¢	$10.5K	$7.1K	+$755.22	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 16.5¢	$4.2K	$5.5K	+$925.22
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 87¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$170
0X 0xfFFF6537ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 84.3¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$82.75	48% 1952-2130 (4082)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 84.3¢	$5.1K	$4.8K	-$353.34
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 16.7¢	$940.58	$1.2K	+$270.58
OJ ojg	Timberwolvesavg 86.8¢	$6.1K	$5.8K	-$304.53	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 16¢	$4.0K	$5.4K	+$1.4K	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
nigiri99CTR	Jazzavg 15¢	$3.5K	$5.0K	+$1.5K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Timberwolvesavg 83.7¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$13.02	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
38 38791873984189	Timberwolvesavg 86.1¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$39.08	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PU purplegattoCTR	Jazzavg 14¢	$1.7K	$3.0K	+$1.3K	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 86.9¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$314.29	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 14.9¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$465.24
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 86.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$150.95
ST stackingsatsCTR	Jazzavg 13¢	$1,000	$2.7K	+$1.7K	47% 367-406 (773)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 15¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$53.99	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 83.8¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$15	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 83.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$15
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 15.5¢	$465	$465	+$0
NM NM-PARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 84¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$2.4	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 84¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$26.25
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 15.4¢	$399.49	$375.64	-$23.85
ElonSpam	Timberwolvesavg 78¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$35.17	40% 1598-2423 (4021)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Timberwolvesavg 80.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$31.04	53% 15513-13750 (29263)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Timberwolves

Invested

$143,241.44

Value

$136.3K

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

50%

8704-8819 (17523)

NOO-Yes

Timberwolves

Invested

$47,520

Value

$42.4K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

—

5-9 (14)

RN1ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$40,599.3

Value

$41.5K

PnL

+$930.92

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$33,387.5182.9¢$-1.8K

Jazz$7,211.7915.7¢+$2.7K

Anon455ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$29,673.13

Value

$29.5K

PnL

-$183.96

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$25,114.1383.8¢$-1.6K

Jazz$4,55916.5¢+$1.4K

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jazz

Invested

$13,342.15

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$15,404.8

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$12,808.6979.9¢+$583.66

Jazz$2,596.1111.4¢+$1.2K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Timberwolves

Invested

$15,744.06

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$90.48

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Jazz

Invested

$9,964.55

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

49%

115-122 (237)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6,544.23

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Jazz$3,038.0315¢+$2.1K

Timberwolves$3,506.1974¢+$23.69

asuka7

Timberwolves

Invested

$8,564.23

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$50.38

Record

58%

1008-717 (1725)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10,512.67

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$755.22

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Jazz$4,242.7616.5¢+$925.22

Timberwolves$1,74087¢-$170

0xfFFF6537ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6,071.59

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$82.75

Record

48%

1952-2130 (4082)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$5,131.0184.3¢-$353.34

Jazz$940.5816.7¢+$270.58

ojg

Timberwolves

Invested

$6,143.53

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$304.53

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$4,028.25

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

nigiri99CTR

Jazz

Invested

$3,503.59

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,895.06

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$13.02

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

38791873984189

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,703.79

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$39.08

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

purplegattoCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,702.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,626.2

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$314.29

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,059.7614.9¢+$465.24

Timberwolves$1,566.4486.9¢-$150.95

stackingsatsCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

47%

367-406 (773)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,397.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$53.99

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

GC-PARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,140

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$1,67583.8¢+$15

Jazz$46515.5¢+$0

NM-PARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,869.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$2.4

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$1,47084¢+$26.25

Jazz$399.4915.4¢-$23.85

ElonSpam

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,829.09

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$35.17

Record

40%

1598-2423 (4021)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,785.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$31.04

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

18 of 39 top traders (46%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (14 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.