Pelicans vs. Clippers

31 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (69%) · Pelicans at 51¢ · $932K held · ended Nov 9

Pelicans51¢Clippers49¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 69%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$932.4K

Combined PnL

-$516.11

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 50.5¢

-4% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

31 of 45 top traders (69%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans51%

Clippers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers14 traders

Total Value$344.2K

Total Shares709,274

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Pelicans31 traders

Total Value$398.6K

Total Shares766,889

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Clippers — 31%Pelicans — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	Clippersavg 48.4¢	$205.0K	$209.9K	+$4.9K	41% 102-144 (246)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Pelicansavg 52.9¢	$166.6K	$165.4K	$-1.2K	50% 8704-8819 (17523)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Pelicansavg 52¢	$104.0K	$101.0K	$-3.0K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
SI SineNooneEICTR	Clippersavg 47.1¢	$99.3K	$100.1K	+$742.57	53% 982-856 (1838)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pelicansavg 52¢	$67.3K	$68.1K	+$789.24	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52¢	$51.8K	$52.3K	+$506.29
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.6¢	$15.5K	$15.8K	+$282.95
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 52.4¢	$52.9K	$52.4K	-$557.84	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52.4¢	$40.0K	$38.5K	$-1.4K
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.4¢	$13.0K	$13.8K	+$860.53
S- S-Works	Pelicansavg 52¢	$52.0K	$50.5K	$-1.5K	69% 3000-1369 (4369)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Clippersavg 50¢	$40.2K	$39.3K	-$889.84	48% 521-567 (1088)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 50¢	$20.8K	$20.6K	-$208.09
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52.3¢	$19.4K	$18.7K	-$681.75
CH ch27erCTR	Clippersavg 46.6¢	$21.6K	$20.6K	-$966.58	55% 48-40 (88)
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxd	Pelicansavg 52¢	$19.5K	$14.6K	+$180.74	71% 399-166 (565)
BO Bozos14	Pelicansavg 52¢	$11.3K	$11.4K	+$99.98	50% 155-157 (312)
65 6512395314597884	Pelicansavg 52.7¢	$12.4K	$11.2K	-$275.63	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
drainedandpoorCTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$10.6K	$10.7K	-$112.66	48% 691-741 (1432)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Clippersavg 46.2¢	$9.3K	$9.5K	+$197.03	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.2¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$166.55
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$30.48
VeryLucky888	Pelicansavg 52.1¢	$38.5K	$9.4K	+$1.3K	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
IM imjustkenisghey	Pelicansavg 51¢	$7.7K	$7.6K	-$75.69	48% 493-536 (1029)
RN1ARB<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$38.77	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$199.7
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 56.6¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$238.47
HA hang808	Pelicansavg 52¢	$5.2K	$4.9K	-$250	40% 158-237 (395)
cs2.quant	Pelicansavg 53¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$235.85	57% 114-85 (199)
ST stackingsats	Pelicansavg 52¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$270.08	47% 367-406 (773)
PL plusti	Pelicansavg 53¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$35.85	47% 17-19 (36)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Pelicansavg 52.3¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$6.25
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$23.75
FL Flaznorp	Pelicansavg 52.5¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$148.84	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$47.61	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$92.21
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 54.5¢	$607.7	$563.1	-$44.6
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pelicansavg 52.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$10.23	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$38.75
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.7¢	$819.75	$868.73	+$48.98

fantasy7788CTR

Clippers

Invested

$205,000

Value

$209.9K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

41%

102-144 (246)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Pelicans

Invested

$166,621.42

Value

$165.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

8704-8819 (17523)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Pelicans

Invested

$103,999.99

Value

$101.0K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

SineNooneEICTR

Clippers

Invested

$99,320.38

Value

$100.1K

PnL

+$742.57

Record

53%

982-856 (1838)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$67,313.41

Value

$68.1K

PnL

+$789.24

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Pelicans$51,819.952¢+$506.29

Clippers$15,493.5146.6¢+$282.95

Anon455ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$52,925.19

Value

$52.4K

PnL

-$557.84

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Pelicans$39,962.8952.4¢$-1.4K

Clippers$12,962.346.4¢+$860.53

S-

S-Works

Pelicans

Invested

$51,999.98

Value

$50.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

69%

3000-1369 (4369)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$40,172.5

Value

$39.3K

PnL

-$889.84

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

Both legs:

Clippers$20,808.550¢-$208.09

Pelicans$19,36452.3¢-$681.75

ch27erCTR

Clippers

Invested

$21,573.85

Value

$20.6K

PnL

-$966.58

Record

55%

48-40 (88)

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxd

Pelicans

Invested

$19,498.3

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$180.74

Record

71%

399-166 (565)

Bozos14

Pelicans

Invested

$11,276.59

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$99.98

Record

50%

155-157 (312)

6512395314597884

Pelicans

Invested

$12,400.03

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$275.63

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

drainedandpoorCTR

Clippers

Invested

$10,590.28

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$112.66

Record

48%

691-741 (1432)

hi774cARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$9,325.95

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$197.03

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

Both legs:

Clippers$6,155.6646.2¢+$166.55

Pelicans$3,170.2952¢+$30.48

VeryLucky888

Pelicans

Invested

$38,507.96

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

imjustkenisghey

Pelicans

Invested

$7,720.38

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$75.69

Record

48%

493-536 (1029)

RN1ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5,969.88

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$38.77

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Clippers$3,746.5847¢+$199.7

Pelicans$2,223.356.6¢-$238.47

hang808

Pelicans

Invested

$5,200

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$250

Record

40%

158-237 (395)

cs2.quant

Pelicans

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$235.85

Record

57%

114-85 (199)

stackingsats

Pelicans

Invested

$4,012.68

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$270.08

Record

47%

367-406 (773)

plusti

Pelicans

Invested

$3,800

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$35.85

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

GC-PARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2,982.49

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

Pelicans$1,699.9952.3¢+$6.25

Clippers$1,282.546.6¢+$23.75

Flaznorp

Pelicans

Invested

$2,585.43

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$148.84

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2,341.25

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$47.61

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Both legs:

Clippers$1,733.5547¢+$92.21

Pelicans$607.754.5¢-$44.6

NM-PARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$1,994.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10.23

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

Pelicans$1,174.9952.2¢-$38.75

Clippers$819.7546.7¢+$48.98

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

31 of 45 top traders (69%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.