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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HD45 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (14–2, n=16) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | -$8.5K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #829 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (3 of 6 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (73 of 101 open) | 54% (64 of 119 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 11 at avg 64¢, ROI −5% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 67% of 3) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 100% of 1) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 0% of 1) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 55% (won 100% of 6) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HD45 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.8K | — | No $411K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $59K | Cowboys $12K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cowboys $1.4K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3.0K | — | No $102K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $5.1K | — | Yes $73K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $339 | — | No $10K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $627 | — | Yes $2.2K | — |