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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Hourglass | BreakTheBank | RN1 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (7716–1806, n=9522) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $136K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #957 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (74 of 97 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 61% (28 of 46 open) | 63% (5 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Golf −1 pts, n=66 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 11836 at avg 86¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 5% of 939) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 37% of 353) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 63% of 524) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 85% (won 97% of 10020) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Hourglass | BreakTheBank | RN1 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs. Broncos opposite sides · consensus Chiefs | — | Chiefs $465K | — | Broncos $7.4K |
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $13 | Yes $21K | — | — |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | — | Falcons $2.7K | Buccaneers $3.0K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $49 | Yes $169K | — | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 | — |