Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (50%) · Buccaneers at 74¢ · $16K held

Buccaneers74¢Falcons26¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 74¢

+62% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers74%

Falcons26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers5 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,048

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Falcons5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,051

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Buccaneers — 50%Falcons — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpBuccaneers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Buccaneers 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Buccaneersavg 39.4¢	$2.9K	$7.2K	+$4.4K	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
RN1ARB<$100	Falconsavg 57.2¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$432.68	54% 57287-49527 (106814)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 52.4¢	$1.4K	$2.7K	+$1.3K
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 57.2¢	$1.6K	$711.93	-$853.59
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$158	55% 3029-2464 (5493)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 60¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$798
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 58¢	$1.2K	$520	-$640
AM AmericaFirst1	Buccaneersavg 42.6¢	$373.11	$875.77	+$502.66	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Falconsavg 64¢	$1.8K	$730.1	$-1.1K	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
LO looppau	Buccaneersavg 99.9¢	$523.97	$523.97	+$0	99% 11191-72 (11263)
PA pauleta23	Buccaneersavg 95¢	$191.05	$200.9	+$9.85	66% 23487-11842 (35329)
SE seeeeeeb	Buccaneersavg 95.5¢	$191.05	$199.8	+$8.75	53% 806-729 (1535)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Falconsavg 64¢	$390.76	$158.75	-$232.01	53% 454-396 (850)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Falconsavg 66¢	$356.28	$140.4	-$215.88	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Falconsavg 48¢	$26.52	$14.37	-$12.16	59% 47089-33330 (80419)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Falconsavg 57¢	$193.62	$9.62	+$66.25	48% 9059-9756 (18815)

primm

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,851.56

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

RN1ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$2,982.54

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$432.68

Record

54%

57287-49527 (106814)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$1,417.0252.4¢+$1.3K

Falcons$1,565.5257.2¢-$853.59

Anon455ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,360

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$158

Record

55%

3029-2464 (5493)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$1,20060¢+$798

Falcons$1,16058¢-$640

AmericaFirst1

Buccaneers

Invested

$373.11

Value

$875.77

PnL

+$502.66

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,797.18

Value

$730.1

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

looppau

Buccaneers

Invested

$523.97

Value

$523.97

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

11191-72 (11263)

pauleta23

Buccaneers

Invested

$191.05

Value

$200.9

PnL

+$9.85

Record

66%

23487-11842 (35329)

seeeeeeb

Buccaneers

Invested

$191.05

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$8.75

Record

53%

806-729 (1535)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Falcons

Invested

$390.76

Value

$158.75

PnL

-$232.01

Record

53%

454-396 (850)

justaluckydudeCTR

Falcons

Invested

$356.28

Value

$140.4

PnL

-$215.88

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.52

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$12.16

Record

59%

47089-33330 (80419)

topdogbigboiCTR

Falcons

Invested

$193.62

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$66.25

Record

48%

9059-9756 (18815)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpBuccaneers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Buccaneers 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.