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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Istaroth | RN1 | BreakTheBank | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (79–171, n=250) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | -$706K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (79 of 108 open) | 73% (16 of 22 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −4 pts, n=76 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 287 at avg 77¢, ROI −4% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 51) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 54% of 13) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 95% of 217) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Istaroth | RN1 | BreakTheBank | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus No | Yes $10 | — | Yes $41 | — |