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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Kettle | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 43% (119–160, n=279) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $146K | $4.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #987 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (7 of 8 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 86% (54 of 63 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NFL −1 pts, n=60 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 33% of 339 at avg 31¢, ROI +9% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 61% (won 1% of 208) | 0% | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 28% of 18) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 21) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 27% (won 98% of 92) | 0% | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Kettle | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $29K | — | — | Yes $36K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $28K | — | — | No $34K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $6.6K | — | — | Yes $274K |