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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| KiruaTrading | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (216–146, n=362) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $21K | $13.4M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #985 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (7 of 9 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (52 of 61 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=37 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 315 at avg 48¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 39% (won 18% of 124) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 45% of 44) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 76% of 45) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 102) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | KiruaTrading | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.8K | — | — | No $202K |