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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| NotJump | RN1 | surfandturf | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 34% (3242–6177, n=9419) | 47% (13860–15343, n=29203) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $436K | $13.4M | $4.1M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #963 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 41% (9 of 22 open) | 67% (4 of 6 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | MLB −31 pts, n=51 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 34% of 4267 at avg 45¢, ROI −9% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 38% (won 4% of 1603) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 20% of 790) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 43% of 856) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 86% of 1018) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | NotJump | RN1 | surfandturf | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs opposite sides · consensus Ignacio Buse | Zizou Bergs $1 | Ignacio Buse $42K | — | — |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $142 | No $7.7K | — | — |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz same side · consensus Hubert Hurkacz | Lorenzo Musetti $6.4K | Lorenzo Musetti $38K | — | — |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana same side · consensus Mary Stoiana | Mary Stoiana $1.6K | Mary Stoiana $21K | — | — |
| Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud same side · consensus Isabella Shinikova | Dune Vaissaud $120 | Dune Vaissaud $273 | — | — |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone same side · consensus Mariano Navone | Mariano Navone $265 | Mariano Navone $3 | — | — |