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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Optimus- | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (985–629, n=1614) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $92K | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 55% (32 of 58 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (79 of 109 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | Soccer −4 pts, n=48 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 58% of 1605 at avg 53¢, ROI +6% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 18% of 473) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 43% of 242) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 65% of 314) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 93% of 576) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Optimus- | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | No $184K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $5.1K | — | Yes $1.1K |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $86 | — | No $590 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | — | Yes $272K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.0K | — | Yes $169K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $451 | — | Yes $72K |