← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OrwellFactory | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (329–231, n=560) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.4K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #991 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 40% (4 of 10 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 559 at avg 58¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 12% (won 20% of 66) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 23% (won 38% of 128) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 67% of 180) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 33% (won 83% of 185) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OrwellFactory | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $249 | No $184K | — | — |