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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SquirrelTheMerchant | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (80–54, n=134) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $60K | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #851 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 81% (25 of 31 open) | 72% (79 of 110 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Finance −10 pts, n=15 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 65% of 120 at avg 57¢, ROI +12% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 21% (won 4% of 25) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 18% (won 45% of 22) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 79% of 24) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 41% (won 98% of 49) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | SquirrelTheMerchant | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.4K | No $89K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $3.1K | Yes $37K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $9.5K | Yes $1.1K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $399 | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $152 | No $590 | — |