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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| StudyPrediction | beachboy4 | RN1 | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4357–3145, n=7502) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | $49K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #1000 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (21 of 31 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 65% (86 of 132 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=82 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 6575 at avg 51¢, ROI +3% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 13% of 1875) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 22% (won 47% of 1468) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 65% of 1105) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 93% of 2127) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | StudyPrediction | beachboy4 | RN1 | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.3K | — | No $22K | — |