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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| TBill1 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (110–139, n=249) | 47% (13854–15338, n=29192) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $82K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #978 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (27 of 44 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 89% (128 of 144 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=52 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 61% of 194 at avg 52¢, ROI −6% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 36% (won 12% of 69) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 63% of 16) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 16% (won 81% of 31) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 97% of 78) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | TBill1 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $19K | — | Yes $85K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $40 | — | Yes $30K | — |