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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| TheImpasse | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 21% (140–525, n=665) | 45% (535–643, n=1178) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12851–13947, n=26798) |
| Consensus PnL | -$151K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #427 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 40% (8 of 20 open) | 72% (83 of 116 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 63% (5 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −11 pts, n=43 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 33% of 90 at avg 34¢, ROI −15% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 67% (won 12% of 60) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 67% of 9) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 67% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 17% (won 87% of 15) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | TheImpasse | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $47 | Yes $169K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $21 | Yes $4.1K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $387 | Yes $77K | — | — |