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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| WarewaPain | BreakTheBank | RN1 | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 41% (460–651, n=1111) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 52% (273–252, n=525) |
| Consensus PnL | -$123K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #654 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 25% (1 of 4 open) | 89% (146 of 164 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 0% (0 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Tennis −5 pts, n=32 | — | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 |
| Settled positions, side won | 66% of 655 at avg 57¢, ROI +13% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 21% of 117) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 20% (won 12% of 109) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 18% (won 58% of 120) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 21% (won 46% of 114) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 30% (won 72% of 195) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 33% (won 60% of 176) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 34% (won 90% of 223) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 26% (won 82% of 137) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | WarewaPain | BreakTheBank | RN1 | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.4K | No $202K | — | — |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $1.3K | — | — | Yes $2.3K |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $100 | — | — | No $2.7K |