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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4BreakTheBankquietparcelRN1
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (546–663, n=1209)44% (6093–7691, n=13784)47% (12761–14165, n=26926)
Consensus PnL—$11.2M$34K$14.8M
Tracked as—PM monthly #2PM monthly #230PM monthly #23 + pinned
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position68% (39 of 57 open)84% (222 of 263 open)65% (59 of 91 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Mentions −4 pts, n=594—
Settled positions, side won—97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%36% of 5067 at avg 39¢, ROI −2%94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 81% of 57)60% (won 1% of 3032)10% (won 57% of 2606)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 201)2% (won 35% of 106)22% (won 94% of 5665)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 196)4% (won 60% of 183)36% (won 99% of 9185)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 109)34% (won 96% of 1746)32% (won 100% of 8345)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbeachboy4BreakTheBankquietparcelRN1
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $167KNo $1—
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $20KNo $18—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $11KNo $59—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.2KNo $535—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $282No $154—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $259No $150—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $235KNo $559—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $122KNo $165—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $10KNo $180—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $6.8KNo $215—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.4KNo $289—
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $2.5KNo $359—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $10No $2—