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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
Add:0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188BreakTheBankbeachboy4joseph006770xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CORGII
| cigarettes | RN1 | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10094–10679, n=20773) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 52% (273–252, n=525) |
| Consensus PnL | $630K | $13.4M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (285 of 422 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 0% (0 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 20% (won 12% of 109) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 21% (won 46% of 114) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 33% (won 60% of 176) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 26% (won 82% of 137) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | cigarettes | RN1 | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.8K | — | No $2.7K |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata same side · consensus Rinky Hijikata | Rinky Hijikata $197 | Rinky Hijikata $34K | — |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $2.7K | — | Yes $2.3K |