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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| classified | CryptoSlon | denizz | SineNooneEI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (191–132, n=323) | no settled market | 70% (172–74, n=246) | 92% (471–42, n=513) |
| Consensus PnL | $783K | — | $2.3M | $1.0M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #341 | was PM monthly #1000 | PM monthly #154 | PM monthly #110 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (19 of 28 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 89% (25 of 28 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| not computed yet |
| |
| Weakest topic | Elections −2 pts, n=101 | — | Politics −2 pts, n=16 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 334 at avg 49¢, ROI −2% | — | 64% of 245 at avg 59¢, ROI +7% | 92% of 511 at avg 55¢, ROI +33% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 46% (won 4% of 152) | — | 26% (won 6% of 63) | 5% (won 83% of 23) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 47% of 15) | — | 12% (won 57% of 30) | 36% (won 88% of 182) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 78% of 23) | — | 13% (won 66% of 32) | 44% (won 93% of 224) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 98% of 144) | — | 49% (won 96% of 120) | 16% (won 99% of 82) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | classified | CryptoSlon | denizz | SineNooneEI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $12 | — | No $40K | — |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2.3K | — | Yes $25K | — |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $213 | — | Yes $11K | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $13K | — | No $251K | — |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $469 | — | No $1.7K | — |