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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| classified | HomeRunHazard | petanimal | Sisyphus- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 100% (1–0, n=1) | 46% (44–51, n=95) | no settled market | 60% (15–10, n=25) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.1K | $61K | $5 | -$37K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #340 | PM monthly #8 | was PM monthly #283 | PM monthly #314 |
| Sides with the consensus | 56% (5 of 9 open) | 70% (21 of 30 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| not computed yet |
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| Weakest topic | Elections −2 pts, n=101 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 334 at avg 49¢, ROI −2% | 100% of 149 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% | — | 98% of 463 at avg 58¢, ROI +39% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 46% (won 4% of 152) | 2% (won 100% of 3) | — | 4% (won 82% of 17) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 47% of 15) | 43% (won 100% of 64) | — | 24% (won 97% of 112) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 78% of 23) | 42% (won 100% of 62) | — | 48% (won 99% of 224) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 98% of 144) | 13% (won 100% of 20) | — | 24% (won 100% of 110) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | classified | HomeRunHazard | petanimal | Sisyphus- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $121 | — | Yes $2.0K | — |