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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| classified | denizz | Sisyphus- | smoltrader | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (191–132, n=323) | 70% (172–74, n=246) | 96% (454–18, n=472) | no settled market |
| Consensus PnL | $783K | $2.3M | $648K | — |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #340 | PM monthly #151 | PM monthly #314 | was PM monthly #368 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (19 of 28 open) | 90% (26 of 29 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (15 of 15 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| not computed yet |
| Weakest topic | Elections −2 pts, n=101 | Politics −2 pts, n=16 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 334 at avg 49¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 245 at avg 59¢, ROI +7% | 98% of 463 at avg 58¢, ROI +39% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 46% (won 4% of 152) | 26% (won 6% of 63) | 4% (won 82% of 17) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 47% of 15) | 12% (won 57% of 30) | 24% (won 97% of 112) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 78% of 23) | 13% (won 66% of 32) | 48% (won 99% of 224) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 98% of 144) | 49% (won 96% of 120) | 24% (won 100% of 110) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | classified | denizz | Sisyphus- | smoltrader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $12 | No $40K | — | — |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2.3K | Yes $25K | — | — |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $213 | Yes $11K | — | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $13K | No $251K | — | — |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $469 | No $1.7K | — | — |