← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flawfence | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (260–241, n=501) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $910K | $3.5M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #34 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (55 of 105 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (53 of 62 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 312 at avg 57¢, ROI +30% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 53% of 55) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 94% of 63) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 93% of 86) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 99% of 108) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flawfence | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $65K | — | No $278K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.5K | — | No $250K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5.4K | — | No $112K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.4K | — | No $34K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | No $26K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | Yes $81K | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.1K | — | Yes $2.6K | — |