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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flawfence | CORGII | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (260–241, n=501) | 62% (393–246, n=639) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $910K | $4.5M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #34 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (55 of 105 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 85% (51 of 60 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 85% of 325 at avg 55¢, ROI +30% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 21% (won 43% of 68) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 94% of 63) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 26% (won 93% of 86) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 33% (won 99% of 108) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flawfence | CORGII | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $65K | — | No $278K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.5K | — | No $250K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5.4K | — | No $112K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.4K | — | No $34K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | No $26K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | — | Yes $81K | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.1K | — | Yes $2.6K | — |