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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flawfence | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (265–242, n=507) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13849–15328, n=29177) |
| Consensus PnL | $921K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #34 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 55% (61 of 110 open) | no open consensus position | 89% (143 of 160 open) | 50% (2 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 85% of 325 at avg 55¢, ROI +30% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 21% (won 43% of 68) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 94% of 63) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 26% (won 93% of 86) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 33% (won 99% of 108) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flawfence | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $63K | — | No $292K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.5K | — | No $250K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.2K | — | No $117K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.6K | — | No $32K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | No $26K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $42K | — | Yes $170K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $5.3K | — | Yes $85K | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | — | Yes $2.6K | — |