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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flow-trader-at-optiver | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 25% (447–1350, n=1797) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 72% (23 of 32 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (73 of 100 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 3819 at avg 86¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 20% of 313) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 64% of 119) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 78% of 171) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 84% (won 99% of 3216) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flow-trader-at-optiver | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $20 | — | No $252K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $4 | — | No $102K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $46 | — | No $22K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $15 | — | Yes $4.7K |